18–21 May 2026
Europe/Warsaw timezone

Assessing the Reliability of Virtual Control Groups in Preclinical Toxicology

20 May 2026, 14:03
18m
Room 12

Room 12

oral presentation Other 3

Speaker

Timur Tug (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM)

Description

The principles of Replacement, Reduction, and Refinement (3Rs) have become fundamental to modern biomedical research. In this context, Virtual Control Groups (VCGs) offer a promising strategy to reduce the number of animals used in toxicological and pharmacological studies. Rather than including concurrent control groups (CCGs) in every experiment, VCGs rely on historical control data collected under comparable experimental conditions to provide the necessary reference distributions for statistical evaluation. To ensure scientific credibility and regulatory acceptance, the validation of VCG-based conclusions is essential.
The VICT3R project was established to advance toxicology research by developing and validating VCGs built from high-quality historical control data. The project integrates standardized CDISC Standard Data Tabulation Model for Nonclinical Studies (SEND) datasets, comprehensive data curation pipelines, and AI-supported analytical workflows to safeguard data integrity, harmonization, and reproducibility. This unified database forms a regulatory-compliant foundation for robust VCG generation and represents an important step toward data-driven reduction of animal use in preclinical research.
As part of VICT3R, we systematically assessed the validity of VCGs across multiple species using both empirical data evaluation and simulation-based performance testing. Statistical comparisons included assessments of group means and variances, hypothesis testing, and effect size estimation. Differences between VCGs and CCGs or treatment groups were evaluated using t-tests, Levene’s tests, and Cohen’s d to quantify potential deviations. In addition, simulations were conducted to evaluate false-positive rates, statistical power, and robustness across a range of realistic experimental scenarios and data-matching strategies.
Our results demonstrate that VCGs can provide statistically and biologically equivalent outcomes to CCGs when stringent data selection, metadata-based matching, and standardized transformation and quality checks are applied. Under these conditions, VCGs can serve as a valid and ethically preferable alternative in decision-making for toxicological studies.

This standardized validation framework contributes to transparent and reproducible VCG implementation and promotes scientific and regulatory confidence in this approach. By enabling reliable statistical inference without unnecessary concurrent controls, VICT3R supports ethically optimized preclinical research and accelerates practical adoption of VCGs in alignment with the 3Rs principle.

96432310326

Author

Timur Tug (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM)

Co-authors

Frank Bringezu (Chemical and Preclinical Safety, Merck Healthcare KGaA) Jenny Irwan (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM) Jörg Rahnenführer (Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University) Nelly Simetska (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM) Rupert Kellner (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM) Sascha Fischer (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM) Sylvia Escher (Fraunhofer Institute for Toxicology and Experimental Medicine ITEM) Wiebke Dammann (Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University)

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