6th CEN Conference

Session

Bayesian methods 1

19 May 2026, 15:45

Room 12

Conveners

Bayesian methods 1

• Gerhard Nehmiz (Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KG)

167. A Bayesian approach to decision making in early development clinical trials: An Open-source solution

Audrey Yeo (Finc Research)

19/05/2026, 15:45

oral presentation

Early clinical trials play a critical role in drug development. The main purpose of early trials is to determine whether a novel treatment demonstrates sufficient safety and efficacy signals to warrant further investment (Lee & Liu, 2008). The new open source R package phase1b is a flexible toolkit that calculates many properties to this end, especially in the oncology therapeutic area. The...

166. Bayesian Methods in Registered Clinical Trials: A Systematic Review of Studies on ClinicalTrials.gov Through 2024

Giles Partington (Phastar)

19/05/2026, 16:03

oral presentation

Bayesian Methods in Registered Clinical Trials: A Systematic Review of Studies on ClinicalTrials.gov Through 2024
Giles Partington & Christina Geyer: Phastar
Bayesian methods are increasingly being incorporated into clinical trial designs to improve flexibility, efficiency, and interpretability. Earlier reviews of published studies (Lee & Chu, 2012) illustrated how these approaches were...

189. Robust calibrated priors for the BLRM that reconcile implicit design beliefs

Lukas Widmer (Novartis Pharma AG)

19/05/2026, 16:21

oral presentation

The Bayesian Logistic Regression Model (BLRM) with Escalation With Overdose Control (EWOC) is widely used in Phase I Oncology trials. Recently, several publications have highlighted a recurring issue: escalation can be blocked even when observed data strongly suggest safety. I.e., the posterior overdose probability at the next dose remains above the EWOC threshold despite no dose-limiting...

75. Assessing Air Quality in Nigerian States Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Environmetrics Model

Oladapo Oladoja (Abiola Ajimobi Technical University, Ibadan, Nigeria)

19/05/2026, 16:39

oral presentation

Effective air quality regulation and climate change mitigation depend on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. To achieve sustainable green development, this study constructs a spatio-temporal hierarchical model to assess the Air Quality Index (AQI) across Nigerian states and to derive actionable insights for environmental sustainability. Specifically, this study develops a...